The question: Is today’s Iowa vote representative of a national election process, or part of an artificial process funneling predetermined candidates to the general election? Let’s look at the demographics first.
With a population of about 3 million and change, Iowa is roughly 1% the size of the US. By age and bipolar gender, male/female, the state is pretty representative of the nation. By race, a different picture emerges in comparison to the rest of the country. Iowa, I know from experience, is a wildly diverse place. There are Irish white people, Dutch white people and German white people. As for non white people, mm, not so much. The state is 92% white compared with 77% in the rest of the country. Blacks and Hispanics are 3.4% and 5.6% respectively in Iowa, compared 12.9% and 17.4% nationally. In the national elections 2008 and 2012, those two voting constituencies figured prominently. Foreign born immigrants in Iowa rang in for the 2014 census at 4.5% as compared to 13% nationally.
The strongest demographics impacting this election will be the female vote and the over 65 vote. While much of Iowa once swung democrat that assumption is far less certain now. Hillary Clinton, who should resonate overall with women, must contend with a surging Sanders’ campaign, now neck and neck with her in recent polls. Iowa’s aging population has a higher number of women than the national numbers. The rightwing media, FOX, tea party messengers and republican super pacs have specifically targeted voters over 45. That front, saturated with anti-Hillary, and to a lesser extent, anti-Sanders rhetoric holds a near monopoly in Iowa’s media. Trump, despite stepping outside the proverbial magic circle in snubbing the last republican debate, remains the front runner in Iowa over a “Hispanic” Cruz.
So, given that Iowa really does not reflect the nation, and instead leans closer, much closer, to reflecting conservative voting directions, is it a part of a constructed process? Is it a false populism flag meant to create the illusion of legitimacy? In recent years Iowans have been spending more and more cash at casinos. The odds of winning a few bucks at a local casino are a bit better than the odds of Iowa accurately predicting the next president. Since 1972, according to fivethirtyeight.com, Iowa’s success rate for predicting which republican makes it to the general is just 50%, or a coin toss. What a way for a nation to choose a leader. As for democrats, Iowa has a 43% record of predicting who will become the candidate going into the general election.
That either means Iowa is choosing candidates and that the process is co-opted later or the only real vote that matters in Iowa is the one that happens every 4 years in November. So goes Iowa so goes the nation? Not so much, but guaranteed, what happens in Iowa will predict one thing: how billionaires, lobbyists and corporations spend their money to negate the actual will of the people, including Iowans come this November.
WC Turck is the author of more than a dozen books. He is an artist, critically acclaimed playwright and talk radio host in Chicago. He has been called the most dangerous voice on the Left. His latest book “<em><strong>A Tragic Fate:</strong> is an unflinching look at the events leading up to the shooting down of Malaysia Air Flight 17</em>.” His first novel, “<strong>Broken</strong>” was recommended by NAMI for its treatment of PTSD. In 2006 he published “<strong>Everything for Love</strong>,” a memoir of his experiences during the siege of Sarajevo. He wrote and produced two critically acclaimed plays, “<strong>Occupy my Heart</strong>” and “<strong>The People’s Republic of Edward Snowden</strong>.” He works with the homeless and foreclosure victims in Chicago. He hosts “<strong>Helter Skelter</strong>” a weekly radio show dedicated to issues, society and politics on Que4 radio in Chicago. he is also an organizing board member of Chicago’s only community radio station dedicated to supporting diversity in media. Turck also hosted Revolution and Beer, with co-host Brian Murray, a weekly TV and radio show. He has been featured on radio, television and newpapers across the country, including The Thom Hartmann Show, WLS, WCPT, The Grant Cordone program, NPR, the Chicago Tribune and more. Turck also has nearly two decades experience in the airline industry, working for both Lufthansa and United Airlines. He is also an expert in Balkan and European History, Nationalism, PTSD and Issues of Genocide and Racism. For more information, past shows, videos and articles, visit http://www.wcturckhelterskelter.wordpress.com</em>