I have been researching the geo-politics of a Trump administration war with Iran, which I predict will happen within the next year to 18 months while Trump still maintains his honeymoon with Republican dominated Congress. Here is how I believe that eventuality will take place.
Saudi Arabia will support an attack on their enemy Iran by the US, after some “Trumped” up incident or provocation. Russia will also support, despite their friendly relationship with Iran, likely for Trump to abandon any interference in Russia’s move to consolidate strategic alliance by supporting Syria’s Assad against ISIS and pro-democracy rebels in Aleppo. Russia would act as pretend peacemaker while we destabilize and dismantle through a war-like Iraq-the ruling council. Russia would gain HUGE advantage over access to the Persian Gulf ports and Iranian refining. Currently Russia must us the Arctic ocean and the NATO ally-controlled Turkish Bosporus as a warm water route out the Black Sea.
Though Putin has pressed and cajoled and romanced Trump into undermining US commitment to NATO, causing Turkey to look north to its Russian neighbor, the route is still too much of a variable for Russian strategic and oil-economy interests.
Worst of all, in this scenario, Israel would move against Gaza under the pretext of security, since Iranian allied Hezbollah and Hamas and the PLA might retaliate against US ally and Russian regional partner, Israel. The goalpost for Israel would be twofold; to deal a deathblow to Gaza and the Palestinians, and forever end debate about a two-state solution and second to seize control of southern Lebanon who has contested Israeli claims and exploitation of the reserve. The mapped reserves currently show oil and gas fields, throughout the eastern Mediterranean, and major fields directly off Gaza’s coast. Conservatively, the value of the fields is estimated as high as $100 billion Dollars.
ISIS, not unlike the national players in the murderous competition of oil and gas, is the trailer trash side of that same coin. Their focus and strategy has been on control of the Euphrates valley as the primary source of water through Syria and Iraq, with a historic infrastructure, but also to control local oil and gas fields, which they use as their primary means of funding in Blackmarket sales of oil which eventually end up in the tanks of European and middle eastern cars and for gas that heats homes through out the world…
*Levant basin map courtesy of US Energy Information Administration
**ISIS territorial map courtesy of Money Jihad